Subnational shielding: institutional quality and forum privilege in brazilian federalism

Abstract

Brazilian federalism grants federative units the autonomy to define the rules governing the original criminal jurisdiction of their authorities. This article investigates the determinants of the expansion of this prerogative at the subnational level, testing the hypothesis that forum privilege functions as a mechanism of political survival in environments of low state capacity. The research innovates methodologically by employing Natural Language Processing (NLP) to mine current constitutional texts (2024), overcoming the obsolescence of secondary databases. The analysis combines correlations (Pearson and Spearman) with Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA), cross-referencing forum intensity with Transparency (EBT), Administration Effectiveness (CLP), and Party Fragmentation (NEP). The results indicate a strong tendency toward a negative association between governmental effectiveness and forum privilege. The csQCA reveals that the “perfect storm” (the configuration of low transparency, low effectiveness, and high fragmentation) is a sufficient condition for the hypertrophy of jurisdictional shielding. The atypical forum privilege is an institutional response to high political transaction costs and regional governance deficits.