Uma análise preliminar da distribuição espacial da climatologia de precipitação pluviométrica simulada em bacias hidrográficas no Estado do Ceará – Brasil

Abstract

That study presents an analysis of the results of seasonal simulation of precipitation, in from February to May period, for years from 1971 to 2000, on region of the basins of the Ceará state, in semi-arid of the Northeast of Brazil (NEB), obtained through the application of downscaling dynamic technique (scale reduction of the forecast). The models of numeric forecast used in the study are: The Regional Spectral Model (RSM97), developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the Model of General Circulation of the Atmosphere ECHAM4.5, developed by the Max Plank Institute. The results show that the utilization of the technique using the models above obtained satisfactory performance in the simulation task of the precipitation climatology about some of the regions in study, with underestimation indices that vary of 1.9 to 19.4% in the best cases and from 32.5 to 40.1% in other situations.